Sunday, January 1, 2012

Republican Caucuses - A Visual Look At Religous Affilliation And the Iowa Caucuses

Voters in the United States who attend church twice a week are overwhelmingly Republican giving us tremendous insight to what might play out as we enter into the first state caucuses.

In forty-eight hours Iowa's retail politic focused Republican Caucuses will commence. Since Republican voters tend to be religiously active it's important to analyze the spread of religious affiliation as part of the American identity.

While notably Evangelical, Iowa is relatively diverse compared to polarity of religious affiliation throughout the United States. Iowa's choice of Republican Candidate in 2008 was social conservative former governor and Baptist Preacher Mike Huckabee.

In 2008 now President Barack Obama was considered a long shot for the Democratic nomination.
bama ran an extraordinary ground game, a necessity to win the retail match; the thinning of candidates particularly and the last minute endorsement of Obama from candidate Joe Biden secured an Iowa caucus win for Obama .


(Map shows Republican Approval Ratings in Reverse Chronological Order)

The interactive map above shows current "Republican Market share" and poll figures dating back to 2009 for reference purposes. If a Republican chose Obama's strategy and strategized with a candidate currently in the running what match-ups could work ? Let's look at the candidates and their religious affiliation:

The chart above organizes candidates by their most recent polling data. Two separate numbers are visualized; the blue line represents Iowa polling numbers and the red a national polling average.
 
Observations:

Ron Paul has distinct principals from the other candidates and is least likely to persuade the endorsement of any the other candidates.

Mitt Romney could be met with a lukewarm response from social conservatives if other candidates use hia minority religious affiliation to create a wedge.

Romney could be shadowed in Iowa is Gingrich make a vice presidential deal while slaying a potential dark-horse candidate.

Newt Gingrich, though on top nationally has been sliding. He's the most incentive to make an early deal unseating Romney's leading position in Iowa and halt his slumping national polling trend.

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